A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
