Starmer's Backers Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a concerted initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a comeback to parliament. This action follows the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming byelection.

Serious Obstacles in the Selection Procedure

Multiple figures on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are desperate to head off any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine reportedly swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially contest the party leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all before any potential bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of insiders also expressed concerns about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The trade unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a strong challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.